Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 30 September 2016 – The Paris Agreement on climate change is set to go into history as the fastest international agreement to be ratified. This landmark agreement, reached at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention (COP21) in Paris in December 2015, aims to limit the increase in the global average temperature to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and to pursue efforts to “limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” in this century.

 

The Paris Agreement, the successor to the Kyoto Protocol (that comes to an end in 2020), takes effect from 2020. However, Article 21 the agreement states that “…the Agreement shall enter into force on the thirtieth day after the date on which at least 55 Parties to the Convention accounting in total for at least an estimated 55 per cent of the total global greenhouse gas emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession with the Depositary”. 

 

As never witnessed before, barely five months since the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, opened the agreement for signature in April 2016, 61 Parties (with Mali being 61st Party) representing 47.79% of global emissions had already ratified the agreement by 23rd September, 2016, with many more Parties (such as EU, Germany, Australia, Canada, UK, France, South Korea and Jamaica) having made pledges to ratify the agreement very soon.  

 

With India set to ratify the Paris Agreement on 2nd October, 2016, the emissions coverage will reach 51.59%, meaning that with the other imminent ratifications the 55% target is very likely to be reached in the first week of October, 2016. This means the Paris Agreement is almost certainly going to come into force during the COP22 in Marrakech, Morocco, scheduled for 7 – 18 November, 2016.

 

Of the 61 Parties who have ratified the agreement so far, 14 are from Africa. Although these countries represent just about 1% of global emissions, it is significant that 26% of African countries have already ratified the agreement, noting that all 54 African countries are among the 191 Parties that have signed the agreement to date.

 

What does an early coming into force of the Paris Agreement mean for African countries? Paragraph 6 of Article 16 of the Paris Agreement states that “… the first session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to this Agreement shall be convened by the secretariat in conjunction with the first session of the Conference of the Parties that is scheduled after the date of entry into force of this Agreement.”  This Conference of the Parties serving as meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) is the governing and sole decision‐making organ of the Paris Agreement. In principle, this means that it is very likely that the COP22 will be the first meeting of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA1). In that case those Parties who have not ratified the Paris Agreement will only take part as observers at COP22, participating in discussions but not privileged to take part in decisions.

 

However, the CMA1 is expected to work on the basis of rules established by the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement (APA) as established by paragraph 7 of decision 1/CP.21 of the COP21. At the time of reaching the Paris Agreement, it was envisaged that the agreement will enter into force in 2020 or slightly earlier, giving ample time for the APA to complete its work. With imminent entry into force of the agreement in 2016, there would not have been enough time for the APA to have completed its work. It is therefore expected that if the agreement comes into force in early November, the CMA1 will convene at COP22 and then suspend its session to allow time for the APA to complete its work and to also allow more Parties to ratify the agreement so that a large number of Parties are involved in the negotiations and decisions under the Paris Agreement. 

 

The basis of the Paris Agreement is the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to climate action submitted by Parties in the lead up to COP21. According to paragraph 22 of decision 1/CP.21, Parties are invited “…to communicate their first nationally determined contribution (NDC) no later than when the Party submits its respective instrument of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.” This paragraph further states that “…if a Party has communicated an intended nationally determined contribution prior to joining the Agreement, that Party shall be considered to have satisfied this provision unless that Party decides otherwise”. The coming into force of the Paris Agreement therefore means that for those Parties who have ratified the agreement, their INDC become legally binding. 

 

Subsequent to COP21, the African Climate Policy Centre of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa analysed the INDCs of all Africa countries (a PowerPoint summary presentation of this analysis is available <here>). The analysis shows the following challenges with some of the INDCs:

The unprecedented momentum for ratification of the Paris Agreement present an urgent opportunity for African countries to revise their INDCs with a view addressing the above issues and strengthening their ambition levels where appropriate. This will ensure that African countries are at the heart of negotiations under the Paris Agreement to ensure that its implementation delivers in supporting and accelerating the Continent’s sustainable and inclusive development agenda as framed by the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

 

For further information please contact:

Dr. Linus Mofor

Senior Natural Resources Expert (Energy and Climate)

African Climate Policy Centre

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa

lmofor@uneca.org