Expected outputs

This study will provide a new information base for infrastructure planning that will incorporate the effects of climate change on the following key indicators of productivity:

• Hydropower production for current and planned facilities, recognizing the full range and extent of climate change effects on river flow and reservoir storage
• Demand for electricity associated with higher temperatures
• Demand for irrigation water consistent with scenarios that maintain and substantially expand agricultural production in the face of changes in temperature, rainfall, and irrigation water availability
• Potential for changes in the timing or nature of investments to ameliorate or, in the case of new opportunities, take full advantage of these climate effects
• Changes in the aggregate costs of current investment plans if no actions are taken in response to climate stressors, as well as identification of specific options for adapting to these changes to minimize costs and the costs of adaptation.
• Identification of investment decisions that are responsive to the uncertainties of future climate change and minimize investment regrets.

Tools and data developed for the study will include:

• A wide range of integrated, consistent climate scenarios for sub-Saharan Africa using the latest techniques for interpreting the results of Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
• Physical effects models to estimate monthly river flow and balance between water supply and demand in the seven major river basins
• Updated power pool electric generation planning tools
• New datasets to estimate the effects of climate stressors on the operations and maintenance costs of road networks

The results generated by the study will be useful at both policy and project levels.  At the policy level, it is important to understand whether long-lived capital investments will yield benefits to African populations through the mid-century period, a critical time for African economic development.  In addition, in the water and power sectors, regional cooperation in management of these resources can provide an important hedge against the possibility of diminished infrastructure productivity, and the study will provide new information outlining the benefits of basin- and region-scale cooperative infrastructure management.

At the project level, the case studies will provide new actionable knowledge to ensure climate resilience is built in during the project design phase, when it is much less expensive to make adjustments to take advantage of opportunities and avoid risks presented by climate change.